Hanging On by a Line steven vancore assures us that the art of the poll is alive and well IS POLLING DEAD? “Alas poor Yorick! I knew him, Horatio…” In this classic Shakespeare scene, Hamlet reflects on life and death as he looks back on an easier and more joyful time. He holds aloft the skull of his friend and court jester, Yorick, who provided him with levity and companionship during his youth. In much the same way, many pollsters are now reflecting on a time when finding a random and representative sample was so much easier and respondents were so much more cooperative. While the general public — especially those poor unfortunate likely primary-voting souls who were called ceaselessly during the summer — wishes that the madness would stop and they could hold up the skull of every caller who intruded on their family dinners. Yet the polls, and the annoying calls, continue and they do so for two specific reasons. First, the public — yes that same skull-wielding public — loves reading about polls. “Who’s ahead?” “Who’s behind?” “Is my candidate winning?” That is why many daily newspapers and TV news outlets report and even conduct their own polls. The public loves knowing the score. Second, those who run campaigns for a 64 | INFLUENCE SUMMER/FALL 2016 living simply must know what is happening in the electorate in order to make key strategic decisions. “Who to target?” “What messages work?” “How does a new attack play among likely voters?” But here’s the problem and why the demise of polling will remain part of the discussion. Polling is far more difficult than ever. With higher respondent resistance, avoidance technologies and the widespread use of cell phones, coupled with the dwindling use of landlines, pollsters — good, high quality pollsters — are engaged in an arms race of sorts with their audiences. The techniques and tools necessary to complete a usable document simply must be more sophisticated in their modeling and pollsters must take extra pains to ensure that the people they are talking to are the right people. And there lies the rub. When news outlets release made-for- public-consumption polls, we see ridiculously wide variation in the results. These polls often trumpet unrealistic swings in voter opinion, which makes no sense. What makes sense and is so important to understand is that voters aren’t swinging back and forth on a weekly basis. Different pollsters — especially those who are cutting costs — use different techniques to create a made-for-prime-time report. Some of these made-for-public-consumption polls will talk to any random person who answers a phone; some only speak with likely voters, while others make no serious attempt to make the sample even marginally resemble the electorate. The end result and the wide swings diminishes the public’s faith in these results and they openly question the validity of ALL polls. So where does that leave us? Readers of this magazine love to consume polling data. But in reading the latest front-page polling report — especially if the poll was conducted by and/or for a media outlet — you simply must treat it like the eye candy that it is. Keep it in context and consider it for entertainment value only. But also know that real polling, the kind most people will never see in a news outlet, will carry on … more complex, more difficult and more exacting than it has ever been. Put the skull away. Polling is changing, but make no mistake, it lives on. Steven Vancore is president of ClearView Research, a political polling and research firm in Tallahassee. Steve has been conducting polls, focus groups and related research projects in Florida for nearly three decades. He can be reached at svancore@vancorejones. com. { insiders’ ADVICE
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