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SUMMER/FALL 2016 INFLUENCE | 87 between the United States and Mexico. African-Americans, long a staple of Democratic support, seem to be sticking with Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton as well. And women tend to have a negative view of Trump, possibly pushing them toward Clinton, according to the polls. As of May (the most recent month available) almost 54 percent of the Orange electorate was female, according to the Orange supervisor of elections office. Should all those trajectories hold true moving forward, Jewett said, “It (Orlando and Orange) would be bordering on overwhelming Democrat.” Party registrations in Orange, elections office statistics show, have been moving to the Democrats for nearly two decades. In 1996, Republicans outnumbered Democrats with 46 percent of the registrations to 40 percent, respectively. As of July, Democrats were at 42 percent, but Republicans had fallen to 28 percent — this as the region’s overall population has grown exponentially. There now are almost 307,000 Democrats registered in Orange, versus nearly 207,000 Republicans. Independents are closing in on Republicans with almost 199,000 registrants. Orange, according to the 2015 census, has 1.3 million residents, with Orlando checking in at almost 271,000. The 2000 census had Orange at more than 896,000 people, with Orlando at almost 193,000. As far as the local implications of the parties goes, most of the elections are nonpartisan, meaning candidate affiliation is not on the ballot. But most people know whether they are voting for Democrats or Republicans. Orlando’s elected officials are mostly Democrats, led by three-term incumbent Mayor Buddy Dyer. The Orange County Commission is largely Republican, led by two-term incumbent Mayor Teresa Jacobs. Seven of the county’s eight constitutional officers are Democrats. That split largely mirrors the state and much of the nation, where Democrats tend to control the larger cities, while Republicans do well in the suburbs and rural areas. Long-time Democratic activist Doug Head of Orlando and Jewett said voting patterns in the City Beautiful and environs follow what happens nationally, too. In other words, Democrats turn out for presidential elections, but often stay home during the off years, when the more reliable older and whiter Republican base shows up. When Obama won in 2008, for example, 45 percent of the votes cast were by Democrats versus 33 percent for Republicans and 23 percent for Independents and other parties. In the 2010 midterms, 42 percent of the ballots were cast by Republicans, 41 percent Democrats and 17 percent others. During Obama’s re-election drive in 2012, 44 percent were Democrats, 33 percent Republicans and 23 percent others. As the election cycles indicate, an edge in registration numbers mean little if voters do not get out to the polls. Jewett said Democrats seem to need lots of ads and news coverage — like those generated during presidential years — to engage and vote. Tico Perez, an Orlando attorney and longtime Republican, takes solace in that pattern. “When they (Democrats) don’t have somebody quality at the top of the ticket … Republicans fare very well,” he said. He also said the growing number of independents helps


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