Demographics + Democrats The changing faces of Orange County means a political shift from reliably Republican voting patterns of the past SUMMER/FALL 2016 INFLUENCE | 85 Orlando and surrounding Orange County were a reliable Republican bastion for decades, even when Florida and the Deep South were solidly Democratic. Led by largely conservative orange growers, cattle ranchers and small business types who relocated from the Midwest, metro Orlando voted Republican in every presidential election following Harry Truman’s upset of Thomas Dewey. Virtually everyone was a so-called Dixiecrat back then, even though they tended to the right with their politics and almost always went Republican when it came to the White House. Grace Chewning, who retired as Orlando’s city clerk in 2000 after 47 years at City Hall, said she registered as a Democrat when she first went to the ballot box. “You couldn’t vote otherwise,” recalled Chewning, who eventually switched her affiliation to Republican. But, starting in the mid-1990s, the pendulum started swinging toward the Democratic Party. The change was mostly a matter of demographics. More and more young people were moving to the area, drawn by the plethora of jobs offered by the burgeoning service industry catering to the tourists flying and driving into the area to visit Walt Disney World, Universal Studios Florida and Sea World. At the same time, the minority population was growing, too, particularly Hispanics — led by an influx of Puerto Ricans leaving their island nation in search of work. The Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Transgender community increased as well. People under 30, minorities and LGBTs have trended Democrat for years. The result of the newcomer influx was that Bill Clinton barely lost Orange during the 1992 and 1996 elections, even though he took the White House comfortably both times. In 2000, Al Gore nudged past Republican George W. Bush, who also lost to John Kerry in 2004 during his successful re-election campaign. Barack Obama then took 59 percent of the vote in Orange during his two runs for the Oval Office, seemingly turning Orlando and Orange County solidly blue when it comes to national elections. But what about the future? Aubrey Jewett, who teaches political science at the University of Central Florida, sees more of the same. “It will be more Democratic,” predicted Jewett, who is researching a book about Florida politics. Orlando and Orange County, he said, are following the same trends as the rest of the nation when it comes to the two major parties. As minorities grow in numbers across the country Democratic numbers are rising, while the Republican constituency is struggling to keep apace. Independents are up, too. “Orange County has gotten incredibly diverse. That is great news for Democrats in Orange County, but discouraging news for Republicans.” —AUBREY JEWETT Pointing to U.S. Census data from 2000 to 2010, Jewett said, the Hispanic population in Orange grew more than 83 percent and African-Americans jumped 22 percent. The number of whites increased by just 2 percent. By 2020, the census projects, Hispanics will grow by another 44 percent in Orange, African-Americans by 43 percent and whites by 6 percent. Polling data indicates Hispanics are trending hard toward the Democratic Party, particularly this election cycle with Republican nominee Donald Trump campaigning against immigration and promising to build a wall along the border BY DAN TRACY CENTRAL FLORIDA
19137EE
To see the actual publication please follow the link above