�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� Election PURPLE STATE 1 5 7 20 6 0 6 7 12 96 .2 5 6.5 8 6 - 8.3 4.1 9 52 6 49 11 0 0 5 19 21 We all know that it all comes down to Florida, but why? Since at least 1996, Florida’s Republican/Democrat split has been within six points, most infamously in 2000 when Bush won the election though Gore won the popular vote. Over the last ten elections, Florida voted with the winner nine times. This year promises to be no different, as it is the opinion of most political scholars that Trump cannot win the presidency without Florida. Given the state’s deep segmentation, embattled districts and diverse populations, that may be more difficult than ever. - BY JOSH NEWBY In order to qualify as a swinger, a state must have a demographic makeup similar to the nation as a whole, have been a predictor of success in previous elections, receive widespread media attention, and have close statewide opinion polls. Florida has each of those characteristics in spades, along with Ohio and Pennsylvania. “It’s a very, very competitive state,” said Susan MacManus, professor of political science at the University of South Florida. “According to recent registration stats, there’s only a difference of 256,000 between Republicans and Democrats. You also have to look at the emergence of the NPAs (No Party Affiliation) and minor parties, as well as the political rise of the millennial generations.” In fact, 18- to 34-year-olds comprise the largest generation in the workforce and the largest contingency of general election voters. Most of them are registered NPA and do not like either of the traditional candidates on the ballot this year. “There’s this notion that Florida is a retiree state, so when you come here, you just talk about Social Security,” said MacManus. “That’s not true anymore.” It was not always this way, of course. Florida used to be just another state that went red or blue. Mostly Democratic after Reconstruction, demographics shifted slightly to give Republicans the edge in the 1950s. At the same time, its population grew rapidly from eight electoral votes during WWII to 29 today, an increase unmatched by any other state except Texas. Add in Cubans, retirees and tourism service workers, and you have an economically and politically diverse state. Whenever it appears one party may have a tenuous hold, another population statistic will shift to throw the balance. MacManus pointed to the increase in the number of Hispanics, blacks and new registrants as evidence that Florida’s population makeup is changing, and with it, messaging within the state must change as well. Most of these individuals, especially Puerto Ricans who left their own country because of economic collapse, do not feel party loyalty like many American natives do, and so these individuals are up for grabs. Both Democrats and Republicans are working hard to court that demographic who primarily live along the I-4 corridor, a section of the state which accounts for 44 percent of Florida’s voting population. It is also no longer true that Cubans are a majority of the Hispanic electorate. 57
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