Election 55 63 2 4 5.5 26 84 26 57 96 85 74 12 13 19 25 27 65 84 .3 0 56 57 84 2 61 18 34 45 12.5 69 84 56 2 54 3.3 54 52 87 85 65 12 96.5 42 51 62 75 94 63 .2 .3 54 59 42 2 3 47 67 13 42 56 32 .5 12 64 57 68 94 24 26 36.5 12 14 .5 18 49 56 47 58 34 36 15 26 .4 12.4 87 62 There has been a massive generational shift in recent years with younger and more diverse Hispanics making up a majority of that minority’s population. Younger Cubans are more Democratic, and while you may think that blacks always go to the Democrats as well, there has been some friction recently between native blacks and South American blacks. “We have more diversity than ever, even within our various subgroups,” said MacManus. Asians are also a growing segment of the population, now at 2 percent. Most of these individuals can be found living near military bases and other areas of high-tech concentrations. This emergence of Asians is most likely to register independent though vote Democratic. It seems like a great many of these minorities are in the Democrats’ back pocket, or at least easily courted by them. While that may be true, Republicans have a firm hold on what may turn out to be a secret weapon this election: working class white voters, alienated from Washington, who have never voted before or perhaps are not even registered. Trump’s game plan has always been to win by expanding the electorate and turning out previously “low-energy” voters. And while longer-term demographic changes may more handily ensure Democratic victory, there are currently a lot of disenchanted white voters in the North, Northwest and Southwest. “Down there in Naples and Sarasota is where you’ll find a huge number of high-turnout, older Republican voters,” said MacManus. “They’ve typically been very dependable, though this election there will be an unknown proportion who don’t vote, as well as some traditionally Republican women who cross over. By the same token, there are some Democrats—especially �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� white males—who can’t bring themselves to vote for Clinton, and they will cross over the other way.” This leaves both candidates in the unenviable position of capturing new populations while trying to ensure their dependable base remains intact. This is where the pivot we often hear so much about comes into play. In political science, a pivot is what occurs when a candidate will risk alienating a small portion of their voters in order to capture a larger contingency of previously off-limits voters. In Florida, a successful pivot cannot happen without visiting almost the entire state, including the oft-ignored Northeast. “Florida has the most electoral votes of any swing state,” said MacManus. “It’s a huge predictor of success. No state looks more like America than Florida. A Republican cannot win without Florida—and cannot win Florida without visiting each of its regions. You cannot ignore the Panhandle, because they’re high turnout, but Tampa is the biggest media market, and of course Orlando is a third of registered voters. A lot of candidates will ignore Jacksonville, but that’s crucial and could send one candidate or another over the slim margin of victory.” So who does MacManus think has the best shot? “The polls right now are slightly favorable to Clinton, and registration trends give her a 0.9 percent edge, but so many crucial things haven’t unfolded yet,” said MacManus. “Typically, presidential debates, for example, will move Floridians more than most other states. A misstep at the debate could really change everything.” There’s too much that’s unpredictable right now, according to experts, and Florida is within the margin of error within most polls. While an aggregate of polls puts Clinton at about 75 percent of winning the Sunshine State and Trump at 25 percent, it should be noted that those odds were inverted just a month ago. Until November, we will continue to see the state play a massive role in the conversation around politics and political forecasting. Expect to see lots of media ad buys and frequent visits, and keep a close ear out for speeches that try to cater to everyone while alienating no one.
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