Hurricane season could be
another unpredictable one
By Doyle Rice, USA Today
The federal government
predicts a near- or
above-average 2018
hurricane season for the Atlantic
Basin, where five to nine
hurricanes are expected to form.
Overall, the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA)
forecasts 10 to 16 named
tropical storms will develop
in the region, which includes
the Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea
and Gulf of Mexico, the agency
announced Thursday. The
season officially begins June 1
and runs through Nov. 30.
Of the hurricanes, one to
four could be major, with wind
speeds of 111 mph or higher
and rated Category 3, 4 or 5
on the Saffir-Simpson Scale of
Hurricane Intensity. An average
season typically spawns six
hurricanes and peaks in August
and September.
A tropical storm has wind
speeds of 39 mph or higher
and becomes a hurricane when
winds reach 74 mph.
Even before the official
season kicks into gear,
forecasters were watching a
18 psst! | summer 2018
system that was expected to spin
up in the Gulf of Mexico over
the Memorial Day weekend.
“There are no climate signals
that suggest this season will be
extremely active like last season
or extremely weak,” said Gerry
Bell, lead seasonal hurricane
forecaster at NOAA’s Climate
Prediction Center.
As it does each year, NOAA
reminds that it takes only one
hurricane to make a season
catastrophic: “Millions of people
need to know that hurricane
season is coming and that you
need to start preparing now,”
Bell said.
The possibility of a weak
El Nino developing, along
with near-average ocean
temperatures in the tropical
Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean
Sea, are two of the factors
driving this year’s outlook. El
Nino, a natural warming of the
central Pacific Ocean, often
acts to tamp down Atlantic
hurricanes.
“If an El Nino develops, it
could shut down the latter part
of the season,” Bell said.
According to NOAA,
those factors are set against a
backdrop of long-term climate
conditions that have produced
stronger Atlantic hurricane
seasons since 1995.
This year, meteorologist
Phil Klotzbach and other
experts from Colorado State
University – the nation’s top
seasonal hurricane forecasters
– said 14 named tropical storms
will form, of which seven are
expected to become hurricanes.
The first named storm of the
Atlantic hurricane season will
be Alberto, followed by Beryl,
Chris, Debby and Ernesto, the
National Hurricane Center said.
Last year, NOAA predicted
11 to 17 named tropical storms
would spin up, of which five to
nine would be hurricanes. In
all, 17 named storms formed,
and 10 were hurricanes. This
included such monsters as
Harvey, Irma and Maria, which
led to the costliest hurricane
season on record, causing more
than $200 billion in damage. |||
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TODAY, Doyle Rice.
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