252 Appendix E
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answer may be no. Most boaters are goal
oriented and when asked to go boating,
there is a tendency to deny personal limitations
while adding weight to issues not
germane to the mission. For example, boaters
in search and rescue emergency services
(than other groups) have been known to
make boating decisions that add significant
weight to the patient’s welfare. These boaters
add weight to intangible factors (the
patient in this case) and fail to appropriately
quantify actual hazards such as fatigue
or weather when making boating decisions.
The single boater who has no other crew
member for consultation must wrestle with
the intangible factors that draw one into a
hazardous position. Therefore, he or she
has a greater vulnerability than a full crew.
Likelihood of an Event
Likelihood is nothing more than taking a
situation and determining the probability
of its occurrence. It is rated as probable,
occasional, remote, or improbable. For
example, a boater is en route from point A
to point B (50 miles) in reduced visibility
conditions. The likelihood of encountering
potential instrument meteorological conditions
such as blanking of GPS signal and
radar interference is the first question the
boater needs to answer. The experiences
of other boaters coupled with the forecast,
might cause the boater to assign “occasional”
to determine the probability of
encountering interference with navigation
equipment.
The following are guidelines for making
assignments.
Probable—an event will occur several
times.
Occasional—an event will probably occur
sometime.
Remote—an event is unlikely to occur, but
is possible.
Improbable—an event is highly unlikely to
occur.
Severity of an Event
The next element is the severity or consequence
of a boater’s action(s). It can relate
to injury and/or damage. If the individual
in the example above is not skilled in dead
reckoning, what are the consequences of
him or her encountering inadvertent loss
of GPS and Radar? In this case, because the
boater is not skilled in low visibility navigation,
the consequences are catastrophic.
The following are guidelines for this assignment.
Catastrophic—results in fatalities, total loss
Critical—severe injury, major damage
Marginal—minor injury, minor damage
Negligible—less than minor injury, less
than minor system damage
Mitigating Risk
Risk assessment is only part of the equation.
After determining the level of risk, the
boater needs to mitigate the risk. For example,
the boater transiting from point A to
point B (50 miles) in low visibility conditions
has several ways to reduce risk:
Wait for the weather to improve to good
visibility conditions
Include someone skilled in low visibility
navigation in the crew.
Delay the cruise.
Cancel cruise.
Drive.
One of the best ways for single boaters to
mitigate risk is to use the IMSAFE checklist
to determine physical and mental readiness
for boating:
1. Illness—Am I sick? Illness is an obvious
boating risk.
2. Medication—Am I taking any medicines
that might affect my judgment or make
me drowsy?